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新型跨区域协议中决策行为的演化博弈分析

Evolutionary game analysis of decision-making behavior in new interregional agreements

  • 摘要: 经济增长往往伴随着生态问题的突显,跨区域协同治理生态环境是当前的主流政策,但协同治理动机存在能力不足、治理成本高昂、缺乏责任追究制度等现实问题,制约着区域协同保护生态环境。因此,新型生态补偿协议应运而生。为了探究这种双向补偿策略是否有效,以及各种因素对上下游决策的影响,本文将中国签订新型跨区域生态补偿协议的上下游合作作为切入点,运用演化博弈理论,构建跨区域协同治理演化博弈模型,并且借助数值仿真进一步探究博弈参与者之间的互动机制和稳定策略的影响因素。研究结果表明,策略的稳定主要与上游地区相关,补偿金额、中央政府激励约束力度以及上游保护成本与综合效益对流域生态补偿机制有不同程度的影响。其中,下游地区对补偿金额比上游地区更敏感,丧失的机会成本与生态综合效益是上游地区治理环境的重要考虑因素。其次,三方演化博弈中对中央政府监管机制的研究强调了中央主导的治理模式对于确保流域的长期生态完整性和公平的区域间合作的重要性。此外,政府未来的政策制定应结合不同地区的利益诉求,构建更加灵活、科学的生态补偿机制,以促进跨区域生态治理的协调发展,实现生态保护与经济增长的双赢目标。

     

    Abstract: Economic growth is often accompanied by escalating ecological challenges, making cross-regional collaborative environmental governance a key policy approach. However, practical constraints, such as insufficient governance capacity, high costs, and a lack of accountability mechanisms, hinder regional cooperation in ecological protection. In response, new ecological compensation agreements have emerged. This study examines the effectiveness of the bidirectional compensation strategy and the impacts of various factors on upstream and downstream decision-making, with upstream–downstream cooperation under China’s newly implemented cross-regional ecological compensation agreements as the entry point. Using evolutionary game theory, a cross-regional collaborative governance model is developed, and numerical simulations are conducted to explore the interaction mechanisms between participants and the factors influencing stable strategies. The findings indicate that, first, strategy stability is primarily associated with upstream regions, with compensation amounts, central government incentives, upstream protection costs, and comprehensive benefits exerting varying degrees of influence on the watershed ecological compensation mechanism. Notably, the downstream region exhibits greater sensitivity to compensation amounts than the upstream region, while forgone opportunity costs and comprehensive ecological benefits are critical drivers of upstream environmental governance. Second, the analysis of the central government’s regulatory mechanism within the tripartite evolutionary game underscores the importance of a centrally led governance model in ensuring the long-term ecological integrity of the watershed and promoting fair interregional cooperation. Third, future policy-making should incorporate regional interests to establish more flexible and scientifically grounded ecological compensation mechanisms, fostering coordinated cross-regional governance and achieving a balance between ecological protection and economic growth.

     

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