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一种完全图上的多阶段传染病模型

A multi-stage infectious disease model on the complete graph

  • 摘要: 经典接触过程是一种建立在n个点的完全图Cn上的相互作用粒子系统模型. 这是一个具有状态空间0,1Cn的连续时间马尔可夫过程,探究的是图上以一定速率传播的两阶段疾病的存活情况.然而模型中的粒子可能不止有“健康”和“全感染”两种状态. 为此,考虑传播速率为λn(λ>0)的多阶段传染病模型,研究其在长时间效应下未来趋势的变化. 探索λ的相变临界值λc(λc>0),使得当λ>λc时,传染病在指数时间eCn内以高概率存活;当λ<λc时,传染病在对数时间Clnn内以高概率灭绝.

     

    Abstract: The classical contact process is an interactive particle system model based on the complete graph Cn of n points. This is a continuous-time Markov process with state space0,1Cn, which explores the survival of two-stage disease spread at a certain rate on the graph. However, particles in the model may have more than two states. To this end, a multi-stage infectious disease model with a propagation rate of λn(λ>0) was considered, its future trends under long-term effects was studied. And the critical value λc(λc>0) was explored, so that when λ>λc, the infectious disease survives with a high probability within the exponential time eCn; when λ<λc, the infectious disease extincts with a high probability within the logarithmic time Clnn.

     

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