Forecast and analysis of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in the United States by TRP-SEAMRD model

ZHU Kehang; CHEN Zeying; CHENG Fengyu; TAO Wanyin; ZHU Shu

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-2778.2020.08.012

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Open Access JUSTC Original Paper

Forecast and analysis of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in the United States by TRP-SEAMRD model

1.
School of Physical Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China
2.
School of Engineering Science, University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230027, China
3.
Division of Life Sciences and Medicine, University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230027, China

Cite this:

https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.0253-2778.2020.08.012

Received Date: 26 June 2020
Accepted Date: 22 August 2020
Rev Recd Date: 22 August 2020
Publish Date: 31 August 2020

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Abstract

Abstract

The traditional SEIR（susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered/removed） model is a simplified dynamical predictive model which does not consider the impact of changes in the anti-epidemic policy. We take the US anti-epidemic policy and the incubation period characteristic of COVID-19 into account to propose the TRP-SEAMRD(test-restricted-phased SEAMRD) model for the pandemic in US. The model fits well with the figures of COVID-19 infections, recovery and death in the United States during February ~ August 2020. According to the data generated from the model, some of the characteristics of COVID-19 can be abstracted. Based on the TRP-SEAMRD model, we can analyze the impact of the improper anti-epidemic policy at the early stage of the epidemic.The effect of the subsequent “stay at home”epidemic controlling measures is also considered and analyzed. Finally, future development of the pandemic in the US under different degrees of social control is simulated,offering a reference for formulating scientific anti-epidemic measures.

Abstract

The traditional SEIR（susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered/removed） model is a simplified dynamical predictive model which does not consider the impact of changes in the anti-epidemic policy. We take the US anti-epidemic policy and the incubation period characteristic of COVID-19 into account to propose the TRP-SEAMRD(test-restricted-phased SEAMRD) model for the pandemic in US. The model fits well with the figures of COVID-19 infections, recovery and death in the United States during February ~ August 2020. According to the data generated from the model, some of the characteristics of COVID-19 can be abstracted. Based on the TRP-SEAMRD model, we can analyze the impact of the improper anti-epidemic policy at the early stage of the epidemic.The effect of the subsequent “stay at home”epidemic controlling measures is also considered and analyzed. Finally, future development of the pandemic in the US under different degrees of social control is simulated,offering a reference for formulating scientific anti-epidemic measures.

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References(55)

References

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[1]	CARCIONE J M, SANTOS J E, BAGAINI C, et al. A simulation of a COVID-19 epidemic based on a deterministic SEIR model[EB/OL]. (2020-05-10)[2020-08-20]. https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.03575.
[2]	TANG Z, LI X B, LI H Q. Prediction of new coronavirus infection based on a modified SEIR model[EB/OL]. (2020-03-06)[2020-08-20].https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030858.
[3]	WU J T, LEUNG K, LEUNG G M. Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study[J]. Lancet, 2020, 395(10225): 689–697.
[4]	PANDEY G, CHAUDHARY P, GUPTA R, et al. SEIR and regression model based COVID-19 outbreak predictions in India[EB/OL]. (2020-04-01)[2020-08-20].https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.00958.
[5]	SANTOS J E,CARCIONE J M, SAVIOLI G B, et al. A numerical simulation of the COVID-19 epidemic in Argentina using the SEIR model[EB/OL]. (2020-07-15)[2020-08-20]. https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.06297.
[6]	HULT H, FAVERO M. Estimates of the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals in Sweden[EB/OL]. (2020-05-25)[2020-08-20]. https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.13519.
[7]	DEEB O E, JALLOUL M. The dynamics of COVID-19 spread in Lebanon[EB/OL]. (2020-05-14)[2020-07-20].https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.07251v1.
[8]	ZHANG YZ, HOLMES E C. A genomic perspective on the origin and emergence of SARS-CoV-2[J]. Cell, 2020, 181(2): 223–227.
[9]	ARENTZ M, YIM E, KLAFF L, et al. Characteristics and Outcomes of 21 Critically Ill Patients With COVID-19 in Washington State[J]. JAMA, 2020, 323(16):1612-1614.
[10]	LIVINGSTON E, BUCHER K. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy[J]. JAMA, 2020, 323(14): 1335.
[11]	ALTIERI N, BARTER R L, DUNCAN J, et al. Curating a COVID-19 data repository and forecasting county-level death counts in the United States[EB/OL]. (2020-05-16)[2020-07-20]. https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.07882v1.
[12]	MAHAJAN A, SOLANKI R, NAMITHA A S. An Epidemic Model SIPHERD and its application for prediction of the spread of COVID-19 infection for India and USA[EB/OL]. (2020-05-11)[2020-08-20]. https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.00921.
[13]	WANG L, WANG G N, GAO L，et al. Spatiotemporal dynamics, nowcasting and forecasting of COVID-19 in the United States[EB/OL]. (2020-04-30)[2020-08-20]. https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.14103v2 .
[14]	XU C H, YU Y G, YANG Q C, et al. Forecast analysis of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in the United States by a generalized fractional-order SEIR model[EB/OL]. (2020-04-29)[2020-08-20]. https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.12541.
[15]	SRIVASTAVA A, PRASANNA V K. Learning to forecast and forecasting to learn from the COVID-19 pandemic[EB/OL]. (2020-05-04)[2020-08-20]. https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.11372.
[16]	JOHNDROW J, LUM K, GARGIULOM, et al. Estimating the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the impact of social distancing in the United States[EB/OL]. (2020-04-19)[2020-08-20]. https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.02605.
[17]	BAYHAM J, FENICHEL E P. Impact of school closures for COVID-19 on the US health-care workforce and net mortality: a modelling study[J]. The Lancet Public Health, 2020, 5(5): e271–e278.
[18]	MOLLALO A, VAHEDI B, RIVERA K M. GIS-based spatial modeling of COVID-19 incidence rate in the continental United States[J]. Science of The Total Environment, 2020, 728: 138884.
[19]	LAUER S A, GRANTZ K H, BI Q F, et al. The incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from publicly reported confirmed cases: Estimation and application[J]. Annals of Internal Medicine, 2020, 172(9): 577–582.
[20]	LI Q, GUAN X H, WU P, etal. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia[J]. The New England Journal of Medicine,2020, 382(13): 1199–1207.
[21]	BACKER J A, KLINKENBERG D, WALLINGA J. Incubation period of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections among travellers from Wuhan, China, 20–28 January 2020[J]. EuroSurveill, 2020, 25(5):2000062.
[22]	GUANW J, NI Z Y, HU Y, et al. Clinical characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 in China[J]. The NewEngland Journal of Medicine, 2020, 382(18):1708-1720.
[23]	FANELLI D，PIAZZA F. Analysis and forecast of COVID-19 spreading in China, Italy and France[J]. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2020, 134: 109761.
[24]	国家卫生健康委员会宣传司.2020年2月17日新闻发布会文字实录[EB/OL]. (2020-02-17)[2020-08-20]. www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqfkdt/202002/f12a62d10c2a48c6895cedf2faea6e1f.shtml.
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[38]	LIN II R G,MONEY L, WIGGLESWORTH A .California faces growing pressure to ease stay-at-home rules, at least in some regions[EB/OL].(2020-04-27)[2020-08-20]. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-27/coronavirus-reopening-california-stay-at-home-rules.
[39]	MCKINLEY J.New York to Begin Limited Reopening in Upstate Region[EB/OL].(2020-05-11)[2020-08-20]. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/11/nyregion/reopen-new-york-coronavirus.html.
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[42]	BBC News. George Floyd death homicide, official postmortem declares[EB/OL].(2020-06-02)[2020-08-20].https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52886593.
[43]	TAYLOR D B. George Floyd Protests: A Timeline[EB/OL].(2020-06-02)[2020-08-20].https://www.nytimes.com/article/george-floyd-protests-timeline.html.
[44]	AIZURA A. A Mask and A Target Cart: Minneapolis Riot[EB/OL].(2020-05-30)[2020-08-20]. https://thenewinquiry.com/a-mask-and-a-target-cart-minneapolis-riots/.
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Forecast and analysis of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in the United States by TRP-SEAMRD model

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