ISSN 0253-2778

CN 34-1054/N

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Open AccessOpen Access JUSTC Original Paper

Population aging, technological progress and economic growth:A research based on the PSTR model

  • School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China

Cite this:
https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.0253-2778.2020.02.016
  • Received Date: 28 February 2019
  • Accepted Date: 10 April 2019
  • Rev Recd Date: 10 April 2019
  • Publish Date: 28 February 2020
    Abstract

  • Abstract

    Using an endogenous growth framework containing the R&D sector, a theoretical model of population aging and technological progress acting on economic growth was constructed. The results of numerical simulation show that aging has a non-linear inhibitory effect on economic growth. Aiming at reflecting the dynamic influence of aging on economic growth, provincial panel data of China from 2005 to 2015 was used to carry out empirical tests with panel smooth transition regression(PSTR) model. The results show that with technological progress as a conversion variable, the negative impact of aging rate on economic growth is smoothed with the improvement of technological progress level, which is characterized as a gradual weakening of nonlinear inhibition. In order to improve the robustness of the conclusion, the elderly dependency ratio was taken as an alternative variable of the aging rate, the robustness test still supports the benchmark test results. In order to eliminate the effect of bidirectional causality between economic growth and population aging, the joint equation model was constructed and the test results are consistent with those of the PSTR model.

    Abstract

    Using an endogenous growth framework containing the R&D sector, a theoretical model of population aging and technological progress acting on economic growth was constructed. The results of numerical simulation show that aging has a non-linear inhibitory effect on economic growth. Aiming at reflecting the dynamic influence of aging on economic growth, provincial panel data of China from 2005 to 2015 was used to carry out empirical tests with panel smooth transition regression(PSTR) model. The results show that with technological progress as a conversion variable, the negative impact of aging rate on economic growth is smoothed with the improvement of technological progress level, which is characterized as a gradual weakening of nonlinear inhibition. In order to improve the robustness of the conclusion, the elderly dependency ratio was taken as an alternative variable of the aging rate, the robustness test still supports the benchmark test results. In order to eliminate the effect of bidirectional causality between economic growth and population aging, the joint equation model was constructed and the test results are consistent with those of the PSTR model.
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    • References(46)
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    王笳旭，王淑娟.人口老龄化,技术创新与经济增长——基于要素禀赋结构转变的视角[J].西安交通大学学报：社会科学版，2017，37(6)：27-38.
    WANG Jiaxu，WANG Shujuan.Population aging，technological innovation and economic growth：From the perspective of structural change of factor endowments[J].Journal of Xi’an Jiaotong University (Social Sciences)，2017，37(6)：27-38.
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    严成樑，龚六堂.财政支出、税收与长期经济增长[J].经济研究，2009，44(06)：4-15,51.
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    CHENG Yudan，GONG Liutang.Government debt and economic growth[J].The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics，2014，31(12)：22-37,141.
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    [1]
    蔡昉.人口转变，人口红利与经济增长可持续性——兼论充分就业如何促进经济增长[J].人口研究，2004，28(2)：2-9.
    CAI Fang.Demographic transition，population dividend and sustainability of economic growth：Minimum employment as a source of economic growth[J].Population Research，2004，28(2)：2-9.
    [2]
    WEI Z，HAO R. Demographic structure and economic growth：Evidence from China[J].Journal of Comparative Economics，2010，38(4)：472-491.
    [3]
    武康平，倪宣明，殷俊茹.人口老龄化，经济增长与社会福利——基于内生经济增长理论的分析[J].经济学报，2015，2(1)：47-60.
    WU Kangping，NI Xuanming，YIN Junru.Population aging，economic growth and social welfare：Analysis based on the endogenous economic growth model[J].China Journal of Economics，2015，2(1)：47-60.
    [4]
    BARRO R J，MANKIW N G，SALA-I-MARTIN X.Capital mobility in neoclassical models of growth[J].The American Economic Review，1995，85(1)：103-115.
    [5]
    李军.人口老龄化条件下的经济平衡增长路径[J].数量经济技术经济研究，2006，23(8)：11-21.
    LI Jun.The balanced economic growth path under the aging population[J].The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics，2006，23(8)：11-21.
    [6]
    刘穷志，何奇.人口老龄化，经济增长与财政政策[J].经济学(季刊)，2012，11(4)：119-134.
    LIU Qiongzhi，HE Qi.Aging，economic growth，and fiscal policy[J].China Economic Quarterly，2012，11(4)：119-134.
    [7]
    KANFER R，ACKERMAN P.Individual differences in work motivation：Further explorations of a trait framework[J].Applied Psychology，2000，49(3)：470-482.
    [8]
    田雪原.人口老龄化与“中等收入陷阱”[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社，2013：93.
    [9]
    ACEMOGLU D.Equilibrium bias of technology[J].Econometrica，2007，75(5)：1371-1409.
    [10]
    ANG J B，MADSEN J B.Imitation versus innovation in an aging society：International evidence since 1870[J].Journal of Population Economics，2015，28(2)：299-327.
    [11]
    SOLOW R M.A contribution to the theory of economic growth[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics，1956，70(1)：65-94.
    [12]
    胡鞍钢，刘生龙，马振国.人口老龄化，人口增长与经济增长——来自中国省际面板数据的实证证据[J].人口研究，2012，36(3)：14-26.
    HU Angang，LIU Shenglong，MA Zhenguo.Population aging，population growth and economic growth：Evidence from China’s provincial panel data[J].Population Research，2012，36(3)：14-26.
    [13]
    FUTAGAMI K，NAKAJIMA T.Population aging and economic growth[J].Journal of Macroeconomics, 2001，1(23)：31-44.
    [14]
    BLOOM D E，CANNING D，FINK G.Implications of population ageing for economic growth[J].Oxford Review of Economic Policy，2010，26(4)：583-612.
    [15]
    齐传钧.人口老龄化对经济增长的影响分析[J].中国人口科学，2010(S1)：54-65.
    QI Chuanjun.Analysis of the impact of population aging on economic growth[J].Chinese Journal of Population Science，2010(S1)：54-65.
    [16]
    张秀武，刘成坤，赵昕东.人口年龄结构是否通过人力资本影响经济增长——基于中介效应的检验[J].中国软科学，2018(7)：149-158.
    ZHANG Xiuwu，LIU Chengkun，ZHAO Xindong.Whether population age structure affects economic growth through human capital：A test based on mediating effect[J].China Soft Science，2018(7)：149-158.
    [17]
    BERK J，WEIL D N.Old teachers，old ideas，and the effect of population aging on economic growth[J].Research in Economics，2015，69(4)：661-670.
    [18]
    曲丹.人口老龄化影响经济增长的实证研究[J].东北师大学报(哲学社会科学版)，2015(3)：63-66.
    QU Dan.An empirical analysis of the impact of population aging on economic growth[J].Journal of Northeast Normal University (Philosophy and Social Sciences)，2015(3)：63-66.
    [19]
    AN C B，JEON S H.Demographic change and economic growth：An inverted-U shape relationship[J].Economics Letters，2006，92(3)：447-454.
    [20]
    刘小勇.老龄化与省际经济增长倒U型关系检验[J].中国人口资源与环境，2013，23(5)： 98-105.
    LIU Xiaoyong.An inverse U-shaped relationship between population aging and economic growth [J].China Population，Resources and Environment，2013，23(5)：98-105.
    [21]
    CZAJA S J，LEE C C.The impact of aging on access to technology[J].Universal Access in the Information Society， 2007，5(4)：341-349.
    [22]
    PRSKAWETZ A，MAHLBERG B，SKIRBEKK V，et al. The Impact of Population Ageing on Innovation and Productivity Growth in Europe[M].Wien：Verlag der sterreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften，2006.
    [23]
    MEYER J.Older workers and the adoption of new technologies in ICT-intensive services[C]// Labour Markets and Demographic Change. Wiesbaden, Germany: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, 2009：85-119.
    [24]
    吴俊培，赵斌.人口老龄化，公共人力资本投资与经济增长[J].经济理论与经济管理，2015(10)：5-19.
    WU Junpei，ZHAO Bin.Population aging，public human capital investment and economic growth[J].Economic Theory and Business Management，2015(10)：5-19.
    [25]
    齐红倩，闫海春.人口老龄化抑制中国经济增长了吗？[J].经济评论，2018(6)：28-40.
    QI Hongqian，YAN Haichun.Is the aging of the population restraining China’s economic growth？[J].Economic Review，2018(6)：28-40.
    [26]
    DIAMOND P A.National debt in a neoclassical growth model[J].The American Economic Review, 1965，55(5)：1126-1150.
    [27]
    ROMER P M.Endogenous technological change[J].Journal of Political Economy，1990，98(5)：71-102.
    [28]
    PRETTNER K.Population aging and endogenous economic growth[J].Journal of Population Economics，2013，26(2)：811-834.
    [29]
    CHUN Y J.The growth effects of population aging in an economy with endogenous technological progress[J].Korean Economic Review，2013，29(1)：51-80.
    [30]
    王笳旭，王淑娟.人口老龄化,技术创新与经济增长——基于要素禀赋结构转变的视角[J].西安交通大学学报：社会科学版，2017，37(6)：27-38.
    WANG Jiaxu，WANG Shujuan.Population aging，technological innovation and economic growth：From the perspective of structural change of factor endowments[J].Journal of Xi’an Jiaotong University (Social Sciences)，2017，37(6)：27-38.
    [31]
    严成樑，龚六堂.财政支出、税收与长期经济增长[J].经济研究，2009，44(06)：4-15,51.
    YAN Chengliang，GONG Liutang.Public expenditure，taxation and long-run growth[J].Economic Research Journal，2009，44(06)：4-15,51.
    [32]
    胡适耕，吴付科.宏观经济的数理分析[M].北京：科学出版社，2004：52-65.
    [33]
    郭庆旺，贾俊雪.中国潜在产出与产出缺口的估算[J].经济研究，2004(5)：31-39.
    GUO Qingwang，JIA Junxue.Estimating potential output and the output gap in China[J].Economic Research Journal，2004(5)：31-39.
    [34]
    顾六宝，肖红叶.中国消费跨期替代弹性的两种统计估算方法[J].统计研究，2004 (9)： 8-11.
    GU Liubao，XIAO Hongye.Two statistical estimation methods for intertemporal substitutional elasticity of Chinese consumption[J].Statistical Research，2004 (9)：8-11.
    [35]
    严成樑，胡志国.创新驱动、税收扭曲与长期经济增长[J].经济研究，2013，48(12)：55-67.
    YAN Chengliang，HU Zhiguo.Innovation driven，tax distortion and long-run growth[J].Economic Research Journal，2013，48(12)：55-67.
    [36]
    程宇丹，龚六堂.政府债务对经济增长的影响及作用渠道[J].数量经济技术经济研究， 2014，31(12)：22-37,141.
    CHENG Yudan，GONG Liutang.Government debt and economic growth[J].The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics，2014，31(12)：22-37,141.
    [37]
    郭庆旺，贾俊雪，高立.中央财政转移支付与地区经济增长[J].世界经济，2009，32(12)：15-26.
    GUO Qingwang，JIA Junxue，GAO Li.Central fiscal transfer payment and regional economic growth[J].The Journal of World Economy，2009，32(12)：15-26.
    [38]
    储德银，韩一多，张同斌，等.中国式分权与公共服务供给效率：线性抑或倒“U”[J].经济学(季刊)，2018，17(3)：1259-1288.
    CHU Deyin，HAN Yiduo，ZHANG Tongbin，et al.Chinese fiscal decentralization and efficiency of public service supply：Linear or inverse U-curve[J].China Economic Quarterly，2018，17(3)：1259-1288.
    [39]
    GONZLEZ A，TERSVIRTA T，VAN DIJK D.Panel smooth transition regression models[C]//Working Paper Series of Economics and Finance. Stockholm, Sweden: Stockholm School of Economics, 2005: No.604.
    [40]
    HANSEN B E.Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels：Estimation，testing，and inference[J].Journal of Econometrics，1999，93(2)：345-368.
    [41]
    BLOOM D E，WILLIAMSON J G.Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia[J].The World Bank Economic Review, 1998，12(3)：419-455.
    [42]
    KELLEY A C，SCHMIDT R M.Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling：A synthesis[J].Journal of Population Economics，2005，18(2)：275-300.
    [43]
    刘洪银.人口抚养比对经济增长的影响分析[J].人口与经济，2008(1)：1-6.
    LIU Hongyin. The analysis on population burden ratio’s influencing on economic growth[J].Population & Economics，2008(1)：1-6.
    [44]
    ROMER P M. Increasing return and long-run growth[J]. J Political Econ, 1986, 94 (5): 1002-1037.
    [45]
    PESARAN M H. General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels[R]. Munich: CESifo, 2004: No. 1229.
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