ISSN 0253-2778

CN 34-1054/N

open
Free to Publish. Free to Read.
Open AccessOpen Access JUSTC Original Paper

The economic effect of discretionary fiscal policy research under the new normal based on the perspective of market sentiment volatility

  • School of Finance and Public Management, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu 233000, China

Cite this:
https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.0253-2778.2017.06.011
  • Received Date: 08 December 2016
  • Rev Recd Date: 17 March 2017
  • Publish Date: 30 June 2017
    Abstract

  • Abstract

    Establishing the models of GARCH and TGARCH based on related data collected through three variables, the growth rate of urban investment, the cumulative growth rate of fiscal expenditure, and the year-on -year growth rate of fiscal expenditure and broad money supply, the impacts of market volatility on investment behavior in the process of implementing fiscal policies was studied, and the effect of the fiscal policies under the new economic normal was further analyzed. The results show that the implementation of fiscal policies has a crowding-out effect on private investment, but the resulting space is limited. Fiscal policies act synergistically with monetary policies for the enforcement of fiscal policies stimulates the increase of investment instead. In the process of policy implementation, the influence of market sentiment on investment behavior is lasting, which decreases gradually over time and has an important reference value for future projections. When the negative news affects market sentiment, the implementation of fiscal policies weakens the effect of negative factors on the investment fluctuations; as the economy steps into the new normal, investor behavior tends to be cautious due to the slow pace of economic development.

    Abstract

    Establishing the models of GARCH and TGARCH based on related data collected through three variables, the growth rate of urban investment, the cumulative growth rate of fiscal expenditure, and the year-on -year growth rate of fiscal expenditure and broad money supply, the impacts of market volatility on investment behavior in the process of implementing fiscal policies was studied, and the effect of the fiscal policies under the new economic normal was further analyzed. The results show that the implementation of fiscal policies has a crowding-out effect on private investment, but the resulting space is limited. Fiscal policies act synergistically with monetary policies for the enforcement of fiscal policies stimulates the increase of investment instead. In the process of policy implementation, the influence of market sentiment on investment behavior is lasting, which decreases gradually over time and has an important reference value for future projections. When the negative news affects market sentiment, the implementation of fiscal policies weakens the effect of negative factors on the investment fluctuations; as the economy steps into the new normal, investor behavior tends to be cautious due to the slow pace of economic development.
    • FullText(HTML)
  • loading
    • References(29)
  • [1]
    UZEUA H. Optimum technical change in an aggregative model of economic growth[J]. International Economic Review, 1965, 6: 167-184.
    [2]
    LUCAS R E. On the mechanics of economic development[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988, 22(1):3-42.
    [3]
    SRESENM P B. Human capital investment, government, and endogenous growth[J]. International Tax and Public Finance, 1993(1):55-79.
    [4]
    ARROW K J, KURZ M. Public Investment, the Rate of Return, and Optimal Fiscal Policy[M]. Baltimore, MD: John Hoping University Press, 1970.
    [5]
    SOLOW R M, TOBIN J, VON WEIZSCKER C C, et al. Neoclassical growth with fixed factor proportions[J]. Readings in the Theory of Growth, 1971(2): 68-102.
    [6]
    FISHER W H, TURNOVSKY S J. Public investment, congestion, and private capital accumulation[J]. The Economic Journal, 1998, 108: 399-413.
    [7]
    CZARNITZKI D, HUSSINGER K. The link between R＆D subsidies, R＆D spending and technological performance[R]. Mannheim, Germany: Center for European Economic Research, 2004: ZEW Discussion Paper No. 04-56．
    [8]
    KORTUM S, LERNER J. Does venture capital spur innovation?[R]. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1988: NBER Working Paper No.6846.
    [9]
    杨林，马顺.促进战略新兴产业发展的财政政策研究[J].山东社会科学，2012（2）：146-149.
    [10]
    DRUCKER J, FESER E. Regional industrial structure and agglomeration economies: An analysis of productivity in three manufacturing industries[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2012, 42: 1-14.
    [11]
    BOM P R D, LIGTHART J E. Public infrastructure investment output dynamic, and balanced budget fiscal rules[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control, 2014, 40(3): 334-354.
    [12]
    安体富，任强.促进产业结构优化升级的税收政策[J].中央财经大学学报，2011（12）：1-6.
    AN Tifu, REN Qiang.Tax policies on promotion of industrial structure[J]. Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics, 2011（12）：1-6.
    [13]
    张同斌，高铁梅.财税政策激励、高新技术产业发展与产业结构调整[J].经济研究，2012（5）：58-70.
    ZHANG Tongbing, GAO Tiemei. Finance and taxation policy motivation，high-tech industry development and industrial structure adjustment[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2012（5）：58-70.
    [14]
    李文.从供给角度分析税收政策与产业结构优化[J].税务研究，2006（1）：40-44.
    [15]
    KITAO S. Short-run fiscal policy: Welfare, redistribution and aggregate effects in the short and long-run [J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2010, 34: 2109-2125.
    [16]
    ASCHAUER D A. Does public capital crowd out private capital[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 1989, 24: 171-188.
    [17]
    王敏，曹润林.市场的决定性作用认识：基于政府投资与积极财政政策经济效应的实证分析[J].宏观经济研究，2014(7)：85-90.
    [18]
    杨俊，王燕.积极财政政策与私人投资关系的区域差异——基于中国东、中、西部面板数据的检验与分析[J].财经科学，2007(5)：118-124.
    YANG Jun, WANG Yan.Regional difference in the relationship between positive fiscal policy and private investment[J]. Finance & Economics, 2007(5)：118-124.
    [19]
    张莹，刘波.货币政策、财政政策对我国投资行为影响的实证研究[J].金融研究，2009（5）：18-25.
    [20]
    刘建民，王蓓，吴金光.基于区域效应的财政政策效果研究——以中国的省际面板数据为例：1998-2010[J].经济学动态，2012（9）：30-35.
    [21]
    DAI M, SIDIROPOULOS M. Monetary and fiscal policy interactions with central bank transparency and public investment [J]. Research in Economics, 2011, 65(3):195-208.
    [22]
    许宪春，王宝滨，徐雄飞.中国的投资增长及其与财政政策的关系[J].管理世界，2013（6）：1-11.
    [23]
    FINDLEY D F, MONSELL B C, BELL W R, et al. New capabilities and methods of the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment program[J]. Journal of Business and Economics Statistics, 1998, 16: 127-152.
    [24]
    ENGLE R F, KRAFT D. Multiperiod forecast error variances of inflation estimated from ARCH models[C]// Applied Time Series Analysis of Economic Data. Washington DC: Bureau of the Census, 1983.
    [25]
    ENGLE R F. Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of U.K. inflation[J]. Econometrica, 1982, 50: 987-1008.
    [26]
    DICKEY D A, FULLER W A. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1979, 74: 427-431.
    [27]
    欧阳明. 我国税收增长问题研究：1994-2007[D].南昌：江西财经大学,2009.
    [28]
    刘博. 应对我国人口老龄化财政政策研究[D]. 呼和浩特：内蒙古财经大学,2015.
    [29]
    柳庆刚. 经济增长、地方政府竞争、国家能力和结构失衡[D].北京：北京大学,2013.
    • Supplements(0)
    • Related Articles
    • Track Citations
  • 加载中

Catalog

    |
    Get Citation
    PDF
    XML
    [1]
    UZEUA H. Optimum technical change in an aggregative model of economic growth[J]. International Economic Review, 1965, 6: 167-184.
    [2]
    LUCAS R E. On the mechanics of economic development[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988, 22(1):3-42.
    [3]
    SRESENM P B. Human capital investment, government, and endogenous growth[J]. International Tax and Public Finance, 1993(1):55-79.
    [4]
    ARROW K J, KURZ M. Public Investment, the Rate of Return, and Optimal Fiscal Policy[M]. Baltimore, MD: John Hoping University Press, 1970.
    [5]
    SOLOW R M, TOBIN J, VON WEIZSCKER C C, et al. Neoclassical growth with fixed factor proportions[J]. Readings in the Theory of Growth, 1971(2): 68-102.
    [6]
    FISHER W H, TURNOVSKY S J. Public investment, congestion, and private capital accumulation[J]. The Economic Journal, 1998, 108: 399-413.
    [7]
    CZARNITZKI D, HUSSINGER K. The link between R＆D subsidies, R＆D spending and technological performance[R]. Mannheim, Germany: Center for European Economic Research, 2004: ZEW Discussion Paper No. 04-56．
    [8]
    KORTUM S, LERNER J. Does venture capital spur innovation?[R]. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1988: NBER Working Paper No.6846.
    [9]
    杨林，马顺.促进战略新兴产业发展的财政政策研究[J].山东社会科学，2012（2）：146-149.
    [10]
    DRUCKER J, FESER E. Regional industrial structure and agglomeration economies: An analysis of productivity in three manufacturing industries[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2012, 42: 1-14.
    [11]
    BOM P R D, LIGTHART J E. Public infrastructure investment output dynamic, and balanced budget fiscal rules[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control, 2014, 40(3): 334-354.
    [12]
    安体富，任强.促进产业结构优化升级的税收政策[J].中央财经大学学报，2011（12）：1-6.
    AN Tifu, REN Qiang.Tax policies on promotion of industrial structure[J]. Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics, 2011（12）：1-6.
    [13]
    张同斌，高铁梅.财税政策激励、高新技术产业发展与产业结构调整[J].经济研究，2012（5）：58-70.
    ZHANG Tongbing, GAO Tiemei. Finance and taxation policy motivation，high-tech industry development and industrial structure adjustment[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2012（5）：58-70.
    [14]
    李文.从供给角度分析税收政策与产业结构优化[J].税务研究，2006（1）：40-44.
    [15]
    KITAO S. Short-run fiscal policy: Welfare, redistribution and aggregate effects in the short and long-run [J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2010, 34: 2109-2125.
    [16]
    ASCHAUER D A. Does public capital crowd out private capital[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics, 1989, 24: 171-188.
    [17]
    王敏，曹润林.市场的决定性作用认识：基于政府投资与积极财政政策经济效应的实证分析[J].宏观经济研究，2014(7)：85-90.
    [18]
    杨俊，王燕.积极财政政策与私人投资关系的区域差异——基于中国东、中、西部面板数据的检验与分析[J].财经科学，2007(5)：118-124.
    YANG Jun, WANG Yan.Regional difference in the relationship between positive fiscal policy and private investment[J]. Finance & Economics, 2007(5)：118-124.
    [19]
    张莹，刘波.货币政策、财政政策对我国投资行为影响的实证研究[J].金融研究，2009（5）：18-25.
    [20]
    刘建民，王蓓，吴金光.基于区域效应的财政政策效果研究——以中国的省际面板数据为例：1998-2010[J].经济学动态，2012（9）：30-35.
    [21]
    DAI M, SIDIROPOULOS M. Monetary and fiscal policy interactions with central bank transparency and public investment [J]. Research in Economics, 2011, 65(3):195-208.
    [22]
    许宪春，王宝滨，徐雄飞.中国的投资增长及其与财政政策的关系[J].管理世界，2013（6）：1-11.
    [23]
    FINDLEY D F, MONSELL B C, BELL W R, et al. New capabilities and methods of the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment program[J]. Journal of Business and Economics Statistics, 1998, 16: 127-152.
    [24]
    ENGLE R F, KRAFT D. Multiperiod forecast error variances of inflation estimated from ARCH models[C]// Applied Time Series Analysis of Economic Data. Washington DC: Bureau of the Census, 1983.
    [25]
    ENGLE R F. Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of U.K. inflation[J]. Econometrica, 1982, 50: 987-1008.
    [26]
    DICKEY D A, FULLER W A. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1979, 74: 427-431.
    [27]
    欧阳明. 我国税收增长问题研究：1994-2007[D].南昌：江西财经大学,2009.
    [28]
    刘博. 应对我国人口老龄化财政政策研究[D]. 呼和浩特：内蒙古财经大学,2015.
    [29]
    柳庆刚. 经济增长、地方政府竞争、国家能力和结构失衡[D].北京：北京大学,2013.
    Recommended articles
    TrendMD
    Volume 47 Issue 6 page: 524-529
    Cover

    Article Metrics

    Article views (330) PDF downloads(143)
    Proportional views

    Copyright © Editorial Office of JUSTC, All Rights Reserved. 皖ICP备05002528号

    Supported by: Beijing Renhe Information Technology Co. Ltd    

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return