[1] |
冯锦明, 符淙斌. 不同区域气候模式对中国地区温度和降水的长期模拟比较[J]. 大气科学, 2007,31(5): 805-814. FENG Jinming, FU Congbin. Inter-comparison of long-term simulations of temperature and precipitation over China by different regional climate models[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2007,31(5): 805-814.
|
[2] |
叶笃正, 季劲钧. 迎接大气科学发展即将到来的新飞跃[J]. 地球科学进展, 2005, 20(10): 1047-1052.YE Duzheng, JI Jingjun. Prospect the overflying development of atmospheric science[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2005, 20(10): 1047-1052.
|
[3] |
刘敏, 江志红. 13 个 IPCC AR4 模式对中国区域近 40a 气候模拟能力的评估[J]. 南京气象学院学报, 2009, 32(2): 256-268.LIU Min, JIANG Zhihong. Simulation ability evaluation of surface temperature and precipitation by thirteen IPCC AR4 coupled climate models in China during 1961-2000[J]. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 2009, 32(2): 256-268.
|
[4] |
ZENG N, DING Y, PAN J, et al. Climate change:The Chinese challenge[J]. Science, 2008, 319(5864): 730-731.
|
[5] |
TAYLOR K E, STOUFFER B J, MEEHL G A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design [J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2012, 93 (4): 485-498.
|
[6] |
GUO Y, DONG W J, REN F M, et al. Surface air temperature simulations over China with CMIP5 and CMIP3 [J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2013, 4 (3): 145–152.
|
[7] |
XU Ying, XU Chonghai. Preliminary assessment of simulations of climate changes over China by CMIP5 multi-models[J]. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 2012, 5(6): 489-494.
|
[8] |
张艳武, 张莉, 徐影. CMIP5模式对中国地区气温模拟能力评估与预估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2016, 12(1):10-19.ZHANG Yanwu, ZHANG Li, XU Ying. Simulations and projections of the surface air temperature in China by CMIP5 models[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2016, 12(1):10-19.
|
[9] |
姜大膀, 王会军, 郎咸梅. 全球变暖背景下东亚气候变化的最新情景预测[J]. 地球物理学报, 2004, 47(4): 590-596.JIANG Dabang, WANG Huijun, LANG Xianmei. East Asian climate change trend under global warming background[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 2004, 47(4): 590-596.
|
[10] |
ZHOU T, YU R. Twentieth-century surface air temperature over China and the globe simulated by coupled climate models[J]. Journal of Climate, 2006, 19(22): 5843-5858.
|
[11] |
李振朝, 韦志刚, 吕世华, 等. CMIP5部分模式气温和降水模拟结果在北半球及青藏高原的检验[J]. 高原气象, 2013, 32(4):921-928.LI Zhenchao, WEI Zhigang, LV Shihua, et al. Verifications of surface air temperature and precipitation from CMIP5 model in Northern Hemisphere and Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2013, 32(4):921-928.
|
[12] |
张冰, 巩远发, 徐影, 等. CMIP5 全球气候模式对中国地区干旱变化模拟能力评估[J]. 干旱气象, 2014, 32(5): 694-700.ZHANG Bing, GONG Yuanfa, XU Ying, et al. Evaluation on the simulation of the drought change in China based on global climate models from CMIP5[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology , 2014, 32(5): 694-700.
|
[13] |
SONG F, ZHOU T. Interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon simulated by CMIP3 and CMIP5 AGCMs: Skill dependence on Indian Ocean–western Pacific anticyclone teleconnection[J]. Journal of Climate, 2014, 27(4): 1679-1697.
|
[14] |
陈晓晨, 徐影, 许崇海, 等. CMIP5 全球气候模式对中国地区降水模拟能力的评估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(3): 217-225.CHEN Xiaochen, XU Ying, XU Chonghai, et al. Assessment of precipitation simulations in China by CMIP5 Multi-models[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2014, 10(3): 217-225.
|
[15] |
丁一汇.季节气候预测的进展和前景[J]. 气象科技进展, 2011, 1(3): 14-27.DING Yihui. Progress and prospects of seasonal climate prediction[J]. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology, 2011, 1(3): 14-27.
|
[16] |
KRISHNAMURTI T N, KISHTAWAL C M, LAROW T E, et al. Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multimodel superensemble[J]. Science, 1999, 285(5433): 1548-1550.
|
[17] |
VIJAYA KUMAR T S V, KRISHNAMURTI T N, FIORINO M, et al. Multimodel superensemble forecasting of tropical cyclones in the Pacific[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2003, 131(3): 574-583.
|
[18] |
ROSS R S, KRISHNAMURTI T N. Reduction of forecast error for global numerical weather prediction by the Florida State University (FSU) Superensemble[J]. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 2005, 88(3/4): 215-235.
|
[19] |
KRISHNAMURTI T N, MISHRA A K, CHAKRABORTY A, et al. Improving global model precipitation forecasts over India using downscaling and the FSU superensemble. Part I: 1-5-day forecasts[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2009, 137(9): 2713-2735.
|
[20] |
刘长征, 杜良敏, 柯宗建, 等. 国家气候中心多模式解释应用集成预测[J]. 应用气象学报, 2013, 24(6): 677-685.LIU Changzheng, DU Liangmin, KE Zongjian, et al. Multi-model downscaling ensemble prediction in National Climate Center[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2013, 24(6): 677-685.
|
[21] |
智协飞, 林春泽, 白永清, 等. 北半球中纬度地区地面气温的超级集合预报[J]. 气象科学, 2009, 29(5): 569-574.ZHI Xiefei, LIN Chunze, BAI Yongqing, et al. Superensemble forecasts of the surface temperature in Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences, 2009, 29(5): 569-574.
|
[22] |
周天军, 邹立维. IPCC第五次评估报告全球和区域气候预估图集评述[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(2):149-152.ZHOU Tianjun, ZOU Liwei. Atlas of global and regional climate projections[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2014, 10(2):149-152.
|
[23] |
胡芩, 姜大膀, 范广洲. CMIP5全球气候模式对青藏高原地区气候模拟能力评估[J]. 大气科学, 2014, 38(5):924-938.HU Qin, JIANG Dabang, FAN Guangzhou. Evaluation of CMIP5 Models over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2014, 38(5):924-938.
|
[24] |
《气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会. 第二次气候变化国家评估报告[M]. 北京市:科学出版社,2011.
|
[25] |
MOSS R H, EDMONDS J A, HIBBARD K A, et al. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment[J]. Nature, 2010, 463(7282): 747-756
|
[26] |
陈晓晨. CMIP5全球气候模式对中国降水模拟能力的评估[D]. 北京:中国气象科学研究院, 2014.
|
[1] |
冯锦明, 符淙斌. 不同区域气候模式对中国地区温度和降水的长期模拟比较[J]. 大气科学, 2007,31(5): 805-814. FENG Jinming, FU Congbin. Inter-comparison of long-term simulations of temperature and precipitation over China by different regional climate models[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2007,31(5): 805-814.
|
[2] |
叶笃正, 季劲钧. 迎接大气科学发展即将到来的新飞跃[J]. 地球科学进展, 2005, 20(10): 1047-1052.YE Duzheng, JI Jingjun. Prospect the overflying development of atmospheric science[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2005, 20(10): 1047-1052.
|
[3] |
刘敏, 江志红. 13 个 IPCC AR4 模式对中国区域近 40a 气候模拟能力的评估[J]. 南京气象学院学报, 2009, 32(2): 256-268.LIU Min, JIANG Zhihong. Simulation ability evaluation of surface temperature and precipitation by thirteen IPCC AR4 coupled climate models in China during 1961-2000[J]. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 2009, 32(2): 256-268.
|
[4] |
ZENG N, DING Y, PAN J, et al. Climate change:The Chinese challenge[J]. Science, 2008, 319(5864): 730-731.
|
[5] |
TAYLOR K E, STOUFFER B J, MEEHL G A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design [J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2012, 93 (4): 485-498.
|
[6] |
GUO Y, DONG W J, REN F M, et al. Surface air temperature simulations over China with CMIP5 and CMIP3 [J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2013, 4 (3): 145–152.
|
[7] |
XU Ying, XU Chonghai. Preliminary assessment of simulations of climate changes over China by CMIP5 multi-models[J]. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 2012, 5(6): 489-494.
|
[8] |
张艳武, 张莉, 徐影. CMIP5模式对中国地区气温模拟能力评估与预估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2016, 12(1):10-19.ZHANG Yanwu, ZHANG Li, XU Ying. Simulations and projections of the surface air temperature in China by CMIP5 models[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2016, 12(1):10-19.
|
[9] |
姜大膀, 王会军, 郎咸梅. 全球变暖背景下东亚气候变化的最新情景预测[J]. 地球物理学报, 2004, 47(4): 590-596.JIANG Dabang, WANG Huijun, LANG Xianmei. East Asian climate change trend under global warming background[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 2004, 47(4): 590-596.
|
[10] |
ZHOU T, YU R. Twentieth-century surface air temperature over China and the globe simulated by coupled climate models[J]. Journal of Climate, 2006, 19(22): 5843-5858.
|
[11] |
李振朝, 韦志刚, 吕世华, 等. CMIP5部分模式气温和降水模拟结果在北半球及青藏高原的检验[J]. 高原气象, 2013, 32(4):921-928.LI Zhenchao, WEI Zhigang, LV Shihua, et al. Verifications of surface air temperature and precipitation from CMIP5 model in Northern Hemisphere and Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2013, 32(4):921-928.
|
[12] |
张冰, 巩远发, 徐影, 等. CMIP5 全球气候模式对中国地区干旱变化模拟能力评估[J]. 干旱气象, 2014, 32(5): 694-700.ZHANG Bing, GONG Yuanfa, XU Ying, et al. Evaluation on the simulation of the drought change in China based on global climate models from CMIP5[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology , 2014, 32(5): 694-700.
|
[13] |
SONG F, ZHOU T. Interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon simulated by CMIP3 and CMIP5 AGCMs: Skill dependence on Indian Ocean–western Pacific anticyclone teleconnection[J]. Journal of Climate, 2014, 27(4): 1679-1697.
|
[14] |
陈晓晨, 徐影, 许崇海, 等. CMIP5 全球气候模式对中国地区降水模拟能力的评估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(3): 217-225.CHEN Xiaochen, XU Ying, XU Chonghai, et al. Assessment of precipitation simulations in China by CMIP5 Multi-models[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2014, 10(3): 217-225.
|
[15] |
丁一汇.季节气候预测的进展和前景[J]. 气象科技进展, 2011, 1(3): 14-27.DING Yihui. Progress and prospects of seasonal climate prediction[J]. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology, 2011, 1(3): 14-27.
|
[16] |
KRISHNAMURTI T N, KISHTAWAL C M, LAROW T E, et al. Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multimodel superensemble[J]. Science, 1999, 285(5433): 1548-1550.
|
[17] |
VIJAYA KUMAR T S V, KRISHNAMURTI T N, FIORINO M, et al. Multimodel superensemble forecasting of tropical cyclones in the Pacific[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2003, 131(3): 574-583.
|
[18] |
ROSS R S, KRISHNAMURTI T N. Reduction of forecast error for global numerical weather prediction by the Florida State University (FSU) Superensemble[J]. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 2005, 88(3/4): 215-235.
|
[19] |
KRISHNAMURTI T N, MISHRA A K, CHAKRABORTY A, et al. Improving global model precipitation forecasts over India using downscaling and the FSU superensemble. Part I: 1-5-day forecasts[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2009, 137(9): 2713-2735.
|
[20] |
刘长征, 杜良敏, 柯宗建, 等. 国家气候中心多模式解释应用集成预测[J]. 应用气象学报, 2013, 24(6): 677-685.LIU Changzheng, DU Liangmin, KE Zongjian, et al. Multi-model downscaling ensemble prediction in National Climate Center[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2013, 24(6): 677-685.
|
[21] |
智协飞, 林春泽, 白永清, 等. 北半球中纬度地区地面气温的超级集合预报[J]. 气象科学, 2009, 29(5): 569-574.ZHI Xiefei, LIN Chunze, BAI Yongqing, et al. Superensemble forecasts of the surface temperature in Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences, 2009, 29(5): 569-574.
|
[22] |
周天军, 邹立维. IPCC第五次评估报告全球和区域气候预估图集评述[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(2):149-152.ZHOU Tianjun, ZOU Liwei. Atlas of global and regional climate projections[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2014, 10(2):149-152.
|
[23] |
胡芩, 姜大膀, 范广洲. CMIP5全球气候模式对青藏高原地区气候模拟能力评估[J]. 大气科学, 2014, 38(5):924-938.HU Qin, JIANG Dabang, FAN Guangzhou. Evaluation of CMIP5 Models over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2014, 38(5):924-938.
|
[24] |
《气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会. 第二次气候变化国家评估报告[M]. 北京市:科学出版社,2011.
|
[25] |
MOSS R H, EDMONDS J A, HIBBARD K A, et al. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment[J]. Nature, 2010, 463(7282): 747-756
|
[26] |
陈晓晨. CMIP5全球气候模式对中国降水模拟能力的评估[D]. 北京:中国气象科学研究院, 2014.
|