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基于TVP-VAR模型的中国碳市场与能源市场的非对称连通性

Asymmetric connectedness between China’s carbon and energy markets based on TVP-VAR model

  • 摘要: 对于绿色金融投资管理和风险控制而言,直观地刻画碳市场和能源市场之间的相关性至关重要。本文研究了碳市场和能源市场收益率之间的非对称溢出效应。为此,利用时变向量自回归(TVP-VAR)模型改进了Diebold-Yilmaz指数模型。在统一的网络系统中,研究数据集包括湖北碳市场、深圳碳市场、煤炭期货市场和能源股票指数的每日收盘价。研究结果表明,对于能源期货市场,湖北和深圳碳市场均具有明显的净信息溢出效应;对于能源股票市场,湖北碳市场是净信息接收方,深圳碳市场是净信息发送方,并且与湖北试点相比,深圳碳市场与能源市场的连通性更为紧密。此外,碳市场的溢出效应表现出明显的不对称性。在大多数情况下,当排放限额的价格上涨时,它们对能源市场的影响更大。市场间不对称溢出效应的方向和程度随时间而异,并可能受到某些经济或政治事件的影响。

     

    Abstract: An intuitive portrayal of the correlation between the carbon and energy markets is essential for risk control and green financial investment management. In this paper, we investigate the asymmetric spillovers between the carbon market and energy market returns. To achieve that, we improve the Diebold–Yilmaz index model by a time-varying vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. In a unified network, our daily dataset includes the closing prices of the Hubei carbon market, Shenzhen carbon market, coal futures, and energy stock index. The findings reveal that both the Hubei and Shenzhen pilots typically generate net information spillovers on energy futures. In connection with energy stocks, the Hubei carbon market acts as a net receiver, while the Shenzhen carbon market is a net transmitter. Compared with the Hubei pilot, the Shenzhen pilot is more tightly connected to the energy markets. Furthermore, the spillovers of the carbon markets exhibit significant asymmetry. In most cases, they have more substantial impacts on the energy markets when the prices of emission allowances rise. The direction and magnitude of asymmetric spillovers across markets vary over time and can be influenced by certain economic or political events.

     

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