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预售背景下考虑消费者时间维度心理账户的供应链优化

Supply chain optimization considering consumers’ mental accounting by time dimension in advance selling

  • 摘要: 基于电子商务平台的两阶段预售活动受到消费者的广泛关注。然而,许多消费者表示,他们在支付定金时是爽快的,但在最后的付尾款阶段则有负担感。也就是说,即使消费者知晓其将为产品支付相同的总金额,他们在这两个时刻的感受也不同。这种心理行为可以用心理账户理论解释,即个人或家庭对财务行为进行编码、评估和记录的认知与计算过程。本文在预售模式下建立博弈理论模型,研究消费者的心理账户如何在批发价契约及收益共享契约下影响供应链主体的最优定价与订货决策。结果表明,在批发价契约下,无论供应商设定何种最优批发价,均会有一部分消费者放弃已支付的定金,零售商的最优订货量总是等于消费者在付尾款阶段的订货量。在特殊情况下,最优批发价格等于零售价格。供应商的最优批发价随消费者对价格的时间系数递增,随消费者对产品估值的时间系数递减。在收益共享契约下,存在供应商的最优批发价等于成本的情况。此外,存在使得消费者均不会放弃其所支付的定金的供应商最优批发价格。本文有助于理解预售情境下的心理账户如何发挥作用,并对供应链契约的设计提供启示。

     

    Abstract: Advance selling activities based on e-commerce platforms have received much attention from consumers, which is a two-stage sales mode. However, many consumers have indicated that they are relatively happy to pay a deposit and feel more burdened at the final payment stage. That is, consumers feel differently at the two moments even though they know they will pay the same total amount for the product. This psychological behavior can be explained by mental accounting, which means the cognitive-computational process by which individuals or households code, evaluate, and record financial behavior. With the use of advance selling, this research has developed a game theoretical model to investigate how consumers’ mental accounting affects the optimal pricing and ordering decisions of supply chain members under wholesale price and revenue sharing contracts. The analysis shows that under wholesale price contracts, regardless of the optimal wholesale price set by the supplier, a portion of consumers will forgo the deposit paid, and the optimal order quantity for the retailer will always be equal to the consumers’ demand at the final payment stage. In exceptional cases, the optimal wholesale price may be equivalent to the retail price. The supplier’s optimal wholesale price increases monotonically with the consumer’s time coefficient for the price and decreases monotonically with the consumer’s time coefficient for product valuation. Furthermore, under a revenue sharing contract, there is a situation where the supplier’s optimal wholesale price is equal to cost. Additionally, a supplier’s optimal wholesale price exists such that none of the consumers will forgo the deposit they have paid. The study contributes to the understanding of mental accounting in advance selling and has implications for supply chain contract design.

     

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