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分段平稳自回归过程的变点估计与模型选择——基于改进的自适应LASSO方法

Change-points estimation and model selection for piecewise stationary autoregressive processes based on modified adaptive LASSO method

  • 摘要: 针对非平稳时间序列中一类分段平稳自回归(PSAR)过程的变点估计和模型选择问题,在已有的将变点估计问题转化成变量选择问题方法的基础上,提出一种基于两阶段LASSO(TS-LASSO)算法同时进行变点估计和模型选择.具体地,在第一阶段中,通过LASSO算法对序列中的变点和模型进行初步的估计和选择,然后在第二阶段中结合改进的自适应LASSO算法对过估计的LASSO结果进行筛选,最终实现变点的一致估计和模型的准确选择.并对变点估计结果的大样本性质进行了分析.此外,对于特殊情形下的均值变化序列和无变点序列,TS-LASSO 算法也能实现有效的估计和识别.最后,结合不同类型序列的模拟检验以及地震波数据的实例分析,证明TS-LASSO算法是有效的,并具有一定的实用意义.

     

    Abstract: Considering the problems of change-points estimation and model selection for nonstationary time series such as piecewise stationary autoregressive (PSAR) processes, a method which can simultaneously conduct change-point estimation and model selection with a two-stage LASSO (TS-LASSO) algorithm based on the existing method to transform the problem of change-points estimation into the problem of variable selection was proposed. Specifically, in the first stage, the preliminary estimation of change-points and the selection of the models can be derived by LASSO algorithm. Then, in the second stage, a modified adaptive LASSO algorithm was used to screen the overestimated results, so the consistent estimation could be obtained and the accurate model could be selected. The large sample properties of the results for the variable-point estimation. In addition, the TS-LASSO algorithm can also achieve the estimation and recognition for the mean change-points sequences and no change-points sequences in special cases effectively. Finally, combined with the test of different type of simulative sequences and the case study of a seismic wave data, it was shown that TS-LASSO algorithm is effective and has certain practicability.

     

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