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极端气温与个体生物标志物的关联:职业和季节的异质性影响

The association between daily temperature extremes and human biomarkers: heterogeneous effects of occupation and season

  • 摘要: 目前关于极端气温与不同组织人员的身体健康之间的联系尚不明确。通过分组织、分季节、分指标讨论,可以探讨夏季(4月–9月)的日最高温和冬季(10月–3月)的日最低温对政府单位、企业公司和科研单位人员在血压、血脂方面的影响。数据来源于中国科学技术大学附属第一医院健康管理中心2017–2021年的体检数据,共计209477份,通过匹配该城市每日的气温,运用广义线性回归(GLM)的分箱回归模型检验了极端温度对健康的因果效应,并利用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)进行了敏感性分析,观察了滞后21天的长期影响。政府工作人员在极端低温下的健康风险是三类人群中最大的,不论夏季还是冬季。与经历中位数水平温度的情况相比,夏季暴露于极低温度(低于第10百分位数,即低于24 °C)的政府工作人员,收缩压和舒张压最大增幅分别为6.481 mmHg(95% CI:5.368–7.594)和2.32 mmHg(95% CI:1.542–3.098)。而在冬季,暴露于极低温度(低于第10百分位数,即低于1 °C)的政府工作人员表现出最大增幅为总胆固醇0.278 mmol/L(95% CI:0.210–0.346)、甘油三酯0.153 mmol/L(95% CI:0.032–0.274)和低密度脂蛋白0.077 mmol/L(95% CI:0.192–0.134)。暖冬对企业职工是有益的,科研人员在冬天对温度最不敏感。人们在夏季更易受到日最高气温的影响,而在冬季更易被日最低气温影响。轻微的温度波动比剧烈温度改变对健康的影响更大。夏季的日最高温和冬季的日最低温均是比日均气温更好的预测指标。血压在三类人群中表现出较强的一致性:极端低温增加血压风险,极端高温降低血压风险;而血脂在人群中的表现较为复杂。

     

    Abstract: The impact of extreme temperatures on the health of individuals in different organizations remains uncertain. We employed stratified analyses to examine the impacts of summer (April–September) daily maximum temperatures and winter (October–March) daily minimum temperatures on blood pressure and lipid profiles across government staff, company employees, and researchers. We examined 209,477 physical examination records from a physical examination center in the First Affiliated Hospital of USTC from 2017 to 2021. Employing a segmented regression model within the framework of generalized linear regression (GLM), we examined the causal impact of extreme temperatures on health outcomes. Additionally, sensitivity analyses were conducted via distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs), with a focus on observing the long-term effects over a period of 21 days. Our findings indicate that government staff face increased health risks during extremely low temperatures, regardless of the season. Compared with participants experiencing median temperatures, government staff exposed to extremely low temperatures (below the 10th percentile, below 24 °C) in the summer presented maximum increases of 2.32 mmHg (95% CI: 1.542–3.098) in diastolic blood pressure and 6.481 mmHg (95% CI: 5.368–7.594) in systolic blood pressure. In winter, government staff exposed to temperatures below the 10th percentile (below 1 °C) demonstrated maximum increases of 0.278 mmol/L (95% CI: 0.210–0.346) in total cholesterol, 0.153 mmol/L (95% CI: 0.032–0.274) in triglycerides, and 0.077 mmol/L (95% CI: 0.192–0.134) in low-density lipoprotein. Conversely, warm winters benefit company employees, whereas researchers exhibit lower sensitivity to temperature changes in winter. The maximum temperatures in summer and minimum temperatures in winter had greater impacts on individuals. Small temperature fluctuations impact health more than large changes do. Notably, both the maximum and minimum temperatures were better predictors of health outcomes than the daily average temperature was. Blood pressure consistently displayed significant associations with temperature across all three groups, with extremely low temperatures increasing the risk and extremely high temperatures reducing it. However, the relationship between temperature and blood lipids is complex.

     

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