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基于分位数回归模型的资产价格泡沫对市场风险的影响

Impact of asset price bubble on market risk based on quantile regression model

  • 摘要: 资产“泡沫”是指资产的市场价格对其基础价值的偏离.泡沫的存在会改变投资者预期,助推资产价格上涨,使投资者低估风险,危及市场稳定运行.在度量沪深股票市场中的泡沫程度的基础上,应用分位数回归模型研究了泡沫对市场风险的影响.得出以下结论:泡沫与市场风险存在相关关系,泡沫越大市场风险越大,且泡沫对长期风险的影响比短期风险更大.市场风险受到短期泡沫和长期泡沫的共同影响.泡沫在短期内助推资产价格上涨,使短期内市场风险下降;而长期来看,泡沫破裂可能性增大,市场风险增加.

     

    Abstract: Asset price bubble is the deviation of price from the fundamental values. The existence of a bubble changes investors expectations, boosts asset prices and causes investors to underestimate risk, and endangers the stability of market operation. Here, the bubble of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market was measured, and the impact of bubbles on market risk based on quantile regression model was studied. The results show that market risk is correlated with bubbles; the larger the bubble, the greater the risk, and the greater its impacts on long-term risk than on short-term risk. Both short-term bubble and long-term bubble affect market risk: while in the short term, a bubble boosts asset prices and reduces risk; while in the long term, the probability of a bubbles collapse increases, thus increasing market risk.

     

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