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我国制造业外汇风险暴露的影响因素研究

Influencing factors of the foreign exchange risk exposure of the manufacturing industry in China

  • 摘要: 以制造业10个子行业324家上海证劵交易所A股上市公司为样本,先用传统的两因素模型估算外汇风险暴露系数,再构建横截面回归模型以确定影响因素,最后研究子行业外汇风险暴露水平与影响因素的关系.研究发现,在10%显著水平下,有117%的公司存在外汇风险暴露;外汇风险暴露与外销比例、速动比例和现金流量净额正相关,与总市值、净利率负相关.对于受人民币升值负面影响的公司,其外汇风险暴露系数与总资产周转率、基本每股收益同比增长率正相关,与研发费用负相关;对于受人民币升值正面影响的公司,其外汇风险暴露系数与资产负债率和基本每股收益同比增长率负相关.

     

    Abstract: 324 A-share listed companies from 10 subsectors of the manufacturing industry were taken as samples. First each companys foreign exchange risk exposure coefficient was calculated with the traditional two-factor model. Then the influencing factors were obtained through cross-sectional regression, and finally the relationship between foreign exchange risk exposure of subsectors of the manufacturing industry and the influencing factors was analyzed. It was found that 117% of the companies have significant foreign exchange risk exposure under the significance level of 10%, and that foreign exchange risk exposure has a positive correlation with export ratio, quick ratio, net cash flow of operating activities, and a negative correlation with total market value, net profit margin. The further finding is that for companies negatively affected by the appreciation of RMB, foreign exchange risk exposure has a positive correlation with total asset turnover ratio, the growth rate of basic per share earnings, and a negative correlation with research and development costs, and that for companies positively affected by the appreciation of RMB, foreign exchange risk exposure has a negative correlation with the rate of assets and liabilities, the growth rate of basic per share earnings.

     

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