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金融危机期间黄金价格与汇率的联动性

Co-movement between the price of gold and foreign exchange rate during the financial crisis

  • 摘要: 基于分位点相协回归模型对黄金价格与汇率的关系进行实证研究.结果表明,非金融危机期间黄金价格与汇率呈现显著为负的极端尾部相依,即市场低迷或高涨时两者走势相反;危机期间由于全球投资者避险情绪的高涨转变为正的极端尾部相依,即市场低迷或高涨时两者走势趋同.此外,危机期间黄金价格与欧元、澳元、英镑、加元汇率存在对称的极端尾部相依,但长期呈非对称的极端尾部相依.最后,黄金价格与汇率的尾部相依随分位点变小而增强,即市场高涨或低迷时相依程度更强.

     

    Abstract: The relation between the price of gold and foreign exchange rate was studied based on a model of quantile association regression. It was found that the price of gold and foreign exchange rate are usually negatively related. But during the financial crisis, evidence of a positive tail dependence was found, because of investors’ risk aversion. Furthermore, existence of symmetric extreme tail dependence between the price of gold and the exchange rates of the Euro, Australian dollar, British pound and Canadian dollar during the crisis, but asymmetric extreme tail dependence existed in the long term. Empirical findings also indicate that the dependence strength significantly increases on upper and lower quantiles.

     

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