• 中文核心期刊要目总览
  • 中国科技核心期刊
  • 中国科学引文数据库(CSCD)
  • 中国科技论文与引文数据库(CSTPCD)
  • 中国学术期刊文摘数据库(CSAD)
  • 中国学术期刊(网络版)(CNKI)
  • 中文科技期刊数据库
  • 万方数据知识服务平台
  • 中国超星期刊域出版平台
  • 国家科技学术期刊开放平台
  • 荷兰文摘与引文数据库(SCOPUS)
  • 日本科学技术振兴机构数据库(JST)

基于发展视角的人民币外汇市场价格关系实证研究

Empirical research on price discovery in RMB foreign exchange markets from the perspective of development

  • 摘要: 随着十年汇改逐步深入,境内外即期、境内外可交割远期和无本金交割远期5个市场之间的价格关系是如何发展变化的,是人民币国际化进程中值得研究的重要内容.通过协整、向量误差修正(vector error correction,VEC)模型及信息份额(information share,IS)模型,研究了这5个市场之间7个阶段的价格引导关系.结果表明,在离岸市场诞生之前NDF(non-deliverable forward)市场一直处于市场价格信息的中心地位,但随着政策的逐渐放松以及离岸市场的发展,境内外远期的价格发现能力不断增强,信息中心由NDF市场逐渐向离岸市场转移,因此可以合理预期离岸市场的价格决定功能将起主要作用.

     

    Abstract: RMB exchange rate reformation has been deepening over the past decade. During this RMB internationalization process, one of the most important research issues is how the price relationship has been developing among the onshore spot market, onshore forward market, offshore spot market, offshore forward market and non-deliverable forward market. Based on the co-integration, vector error correction (VEC) model and information share (IS) model, price discovery mechanism among these five markets of seven periods was studied. The result shows that non-deliverable forward (NDF) market has greater price discovery ability before the emergence of the offshore market. However, as the result of easing policies and the development of the offshore market, the centrality of market price information is gradually transferred from the non-deliverable forward market to the offshore market. It is expected that the offshore market will play the main role in the price discovery mechanism.

     

/

返回文章
返回