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基于因子的稳健基尼协方差矩阵估计及其在投资组合中的应用

Robust Gini covariance matrix estimation for portfolio selection based on a factor model

  • 摘要: 投资组合理论在金融领域得到了广泛的研究和应用。在全局最小方差策略下确定最优投资组合权重时,需要对协方差矩阵及其逆矩阵进行估计。然而,金融数据的高维度和重尾分布特性给估计工作带来了巨大挑战。本文提出了一种基于基尼协方差矩阵的新型方法,创新性地引入低阶和稀疏的相关性结构来替代传统样本协方差矩阵,具体而言,采用因子模型来捕捉低秩结构,并结合阈值规则来实现最终估计。我们在理论上证明了所提估计的相合性,并通过模拟和实证分析验证了其有效性。模拟结果表明,我们的方法在多种分布场景下均具有高度适用性。实证投资组合分析进一步证明,该方法能够构建出具有卓越表现的投资组合。

     

    Abstract: Portfolio theory has been extensively studied and applied in finance. To determine the optimal portfolio weight under the global minimum variance strategy, it is necessary to estimate both the covariance matrix and its inverse. However, the high dimensionality and heavy-tailed nature of financial data pose significant challenges to this estimation. In this study, we propose a method to estimate the Gini covariance matrix by introducing a low-rank and sparse correlation structure, as an alternative to the traditional sample covariance matrix. Our approach employs a factor model to capture the low-rank structure, combined with thresholding rules to achieve the final estimation. We demonstrate the consistency of our estimators and validate our approach through simulation experiments and empirical portfolio analyses. Simulation results show that our method is highly applicable across a variety of distributional scenarios. Furthermore, empirical portfolio analysis indicates that our method can construct portfolios with superior performance.

     

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