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基于混合方法的配电线路诱发森林火灾区域风险评估

Regional-scale risk assessment of forest fires induced by distribution lines via a hybrid approach

  • 摘要: 配电线路故障诱发的森林火灾事故频发,给人民生命安全和社会经济发展带来沉重打击。目前,针对架空配电线路诱发的森林火灾的风险评估很少,且现有的评估方法在数据获取方面可能存在困难。基于此,本文提出了一种基于层次分析法、贝叶斯网络和Fuseel-Vesely重要性度量的评估框架。该框架结合实地研究和历史运维数据,评估架空配电线路诱发森林火灾的区域风险,以得出森林火灾的发生概率,并确定评估区域内的高风险线路和关键危险事件。最后,以皖南地区为例,计算得出皖南地区架空配电线路引发森林火灾的年火灾概率为5.88%,并提出了整改措施。这项研究为管理人员提供了一个完整的评估框架,优化了数据收集的难度,并允许根据评估结果为整个区域和路线提出其他有针对性的整改措施。

     

    Abstract: Forest fire accidents caused by distribution line faults occur frequently, resulting in heavy impacts on people’s safety and social and economic development. Currently, there are few risk assessments for forest fires induced by overhead distribution lines, and existing assessment methods may have difficulties in data acquisition. On this basis, a novel assessment framework based on an analytic hierarchy process, a Bayesian network and a Fussel-Vesely importance metric is proposed in this paper. The framework combines field research and historical operation and maintenance data to assess the regional-scale risk of forest fires induced by overhead distribution lines to derive the probability of forest fires and to identify high-risk lines and key hazard events in the assessment region. Finally, taking the southern Anhui region as an example, the annual fire probability of forest fires induced by overhead distribution lines in the southern Anhui region is 5.88%, and rectification measures are proposed. This study provides management with a complete assessment framework that optimizes the difficulty of data collection and allows for additional targeted corrective measures to be proposed for the entire region and route on the basis of the assessment results.

     

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